Wednesday, February 08, 2012

ForumDiscussionsBusiness 101Crime... we haven't seen anything yet
Glue Warehouse - Seam-It

  Sponsors
Gemstone Sink and Bowl Company
MIA - Join Today
Wesley Tools - Router Bits, Blades and Tools
Used Stone Equipment 125 x 125
  
  The FabNet® Forum
Crime... we haven't seen anything yet
Last Post 27 May 2010 01:40 AM by Kowboy. 109 Replies.
AddThis - Bookmarking and Sharing Button Printer Friendly
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
Sort:
PrevPrev NextNext
You are not authorized to post a reply.
Page 2 of 6 << < 12345 > >>
Author Messages
Tom M
Senior Member
Senior Member

Tom M

Private Messenger: Send Private Message
Posts: 7650


--
12 Apr 2010 01:44 PM
I read that article as well, Randy.
I think that you can't reliably predict that the economy will make crime rise based on two years of data. It is still anecdotal at that point and last year, if I recall, was actually low in ,most major cities. Will we credit that to a minority being president for the first time? sounds silly, but about as reliable as the current state of the economy and crime.

For the record, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see non violent crime up if the economy keeps itself in the crapper. Certainly the temptation for corporate crimes like larceny and embezzlement will increase.
But a Constitution of Government once changed from Freedom, can never be restored. Liberty, once lost, is lost forever.

John Adams, letter to Abigail Adams, July 17, 1775
Kowboy
Veteran Member
Veteran Member

Kowboy

Private Messenger: Send Private Message
Posts: 2903


--
12 Apr 2010 02:50 PM

Kelsey:

 

If your theory holds true, that the bad economy creates more crime, shouldn't the inverse be true? Shouldn't you have experienced a drop in crime in your area as the economy continued to improve from 2004-2005?

In 2004, in Cauldwell County, Kentucky, there were no assaults, six burglaries, nine thefts and three car thefts. In 2005, there were six assaults, sixteen burglaries, twenty-three thefts and five auto thefts. 

More here.
 
If your recent noting of local crime rising is caused by the poor economy and makes me from another planet, how do you explain away the increase in crime when times were getting better?

Joe

...One ought to choose likely impossibilities in preference to unconvincing possibilities.- Aristotle
Kowboy
Veteran Member
Veteran Member

Kowboy

Private Messenger: Send Private Message
Posts: 2903


--
12 Apr 2010 03:02 PM
Posted By Wags on 12 Apr 2010 01:05 AM
Joe

The problem with government stats ( even IF we believe them) is by the time they are published they are outdated. Its like looking at sales from 5 years ago, and saying, hey things are good look at how much we did in 2005...it means nothing.

Here is an article published TODAY....by that flaming right wing organization known as the New York Times..  You can find stories like this in many cities in this country.. sadly.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/12/n...olice.html

This thread was showing what is happening now... not in the past.  If you don't feel were in dangerous times, and that the future MAY be even more dangerous, that's your right.. and God knows I HOPE your 100% correct.  But in peoples' guts, we know something is not right. Something is happening thats not good for this country, and while we may not be able to pin point what it is, more and more are feeling that way.

On a totally different subject.....

I did some studing over the last few weeks, in regards to our founding fathers and how they felt about religion.  Perhaps we should start a thread about that.  What they said, how they acted may actually blow you away.  Taking history, (not the revised history they teach now) and doing a little research is a real awaking.  I went to school in the 50's and 60's, and while its been a while, I thought I remembered what/how I was taught was not what I have been reading. 

But that is for another discussion. 

Read the story in the link above.. its current and MAY be a prediction of what is happening or about to happen.

I would also suggest you challenge your professors.. I'll be happy to help you research subjects :)


Wags:

Listen to yourself. You are saying that documenting long-term trends has no value. That's what we have to be concerned with, not the immediate rise or fall of crime.

To use your sales example, suppose a guy comes to you looking for a sales job. Do you look at what he's sold in the last three months or year, or do you want to see him having steadily built business weighed in the context of the economy over several years? Meaningless? Please.

On your other subject, please bring it on. This will be the easiest slam-dunk I've ever had. We'll just look at the actual words that came out of the mouths of the founders of this country (not subject to revision) if there is any doubt as to whether or not they wanted a secular nation. Look up the Treaty of Tripoli if you want the Senate's unanimous confirmation of same, again not subject to revision.

Joe
...One ought to choose likely impossibilities in preference to unconvincing possibilities.- Aristotle
Lenny E
Veteran Member
Veteran Member

Lenny E

Private Messenger: Send Private Message
Posts: 2818


--
12 Apr 2010 05:16 PM
Joe,

First of all you are getting better, thanks for not quoting Wikipedia. I’ve read your cites, and also your response to Wags . And for the record I hope you are correct, that crime is going down. I don’t see it, but I still hope you are right.

From your last post defending your use of outdated data you had this to say. “To use your sales example, suppose a guy comes to you looking for a sales job. Do you look at what he's sold in the last three months or year, or do you want to see him having steadily built business weighed in the context of the economy over several years? Meaningless? Please.”
 
Joe, Are you sitting down? Please sit down. Are you comfortable? Good. Please see your own CITE

It says "the majority of crime and approximately half of all violent crimes are not reported to law enforcement agencies” Joe, to use Wags Sales figures analogy, Please don’t apply for any sales jobs. Not only are your sales figures outdated, you are missing OVER half of them! Your data is meaningless…its all garbage.

Also see another one of your citations  Here

And I quote…..”These rankings, however, are merely a quick choice made by the data user; they provide no insight into the many variables that mold the crime in a particular town, city, county, state, region, or other jurisdiction. Consequently, these rankings lead to simplistic and/or incomplete analyses that often create misleading perceptions adversely affecting cities and counties, along with their residents.”

Joe- Your own cite even cautions against the use of the data….and says they” lead to simplistic, and/or incomplete analyses”.

Joe, you make this too easy. Do you even read your citations completely? Or do you just read a line or two after googling and then post? Ahhh, yes, I think this quote from you earlier in the thread says it all.

“It took me minutes to come up with non-Wiki sources substantiating my position.”

Spend the time grasshopper, and read your citations completely lest you suffer ridicule! As for Seperation of Church and State, please start another thread. I can only figuratively slap you so many times in this one!

All the Best,

LennyE
Randy Evans
Advanced Member
Advanced Member

Randy Evans

Private Messenger: Send Private Message
Posts: 622


--
12 Apr 2010 06:06 PM
It is the case that crime rates have been falling, not just for years but for decades.  I would respectfully suggest that the refusal to accept that this is possible (much less the reality of our lives) is more about being committed to a "everything sucks and is getting worse every day" outlook on life than it is a matter of looking realistically at the world around us. 

The topical matter is different, but I think this guy captures the underlying essence pretty well.  And, it's really funny!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8r1CZTLk-Gk
Randy <br><br>The Hold Steady is the best band in America!
Wags
Veteran Member
Veteran Member

Wags

Private Messenger: Send Private Message
Posts: 1754


--
12 Apr 2010 09:38 PM

Joe..

Your right.. anarchy could never happen in America. Were much to civil to ever have what happens in other countries, happen here.  There is a zero chance of anything bad happening in the United States. 

But "What if"... IF things do breakdown.. what happens then?  Isn't it, perhaps, just maybe, best to at least "Think" about what you would do.. how you would handle the situation? 

But, naw.. can't happen here..Not in America..never..nope.. things are great.. getting better every day..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZTP..._embedded#

Kowboy
Veteran Member
Veteran Member

Kowboy

Private Messenger: Send Private Message
Posts: 2903


--
13 Apr 2010 03:06 AM

Lenny:

Yes, I read my own citations before making them. Rather than accuse you of "cherry picking" as others are wont to do, I'll just say that my cites show balance and context, things often sorely lacking here.

If you've got ANY long-term documentation that crime is up, please post.

Joe

...One ought to choose likely impossibilities in preference to unconvincing possibilities.- Aristotle
Kowboy
Veteran Member
Veteran Member

Kowboy

Private Messenger: Send Private Message
Posts: 2903


--
13 Apr 2010 03:19 AM

Randy:

Excuse me for not welcoming you to the fabnet. I loved your youtube link; however, I have some bad news.

You are revealing yourself to be an optimist. That is nearly forbidden here. As far as I can tell I'm the only other one. If you don't believe Barak Obama is the Antichrist and is responsible for everything from crime to why your old lady doesn't put out like she used to, you are Satan's spawn here.

Welcome to the club. I knew there was another one.

Joe

...One ought to choose likely impossibilities in preference to unconvincing possibilities.- Aristotle
Lenny E
Veteran Member
Veteran Member

Lenny E

Private Messenger: Send Private Message
Posts: 2818


--
13 Apr 2010 03:21 AM
Joe,

If by balanced you mean…opps over half the data you cited is MIA, and the data itself comes with a caveat saying “Consequently, these rankings lead to simplistic and/or incomplete analyses that often create misleading perceptions adversely affecting cities and counties, along with their residents.”

Then yeah Joe, that sure seems balanced to me.

As for cherry picking, your contrite response addresses niether the missing incomplete data you have quoted repeatedly nor the caveat not to use it for any conclusions.

Heres a basket......pick those cherrys Joe. Maybe you can make us all a smoothie to go with the Kool Aid you are serving.
Kowboy
Veteran Member
Veteran Member

Kowboy

Private Messenger: Send Private Message
Posts: 2903


--
13 Apr 2010 03:26 AM
Posted By Lenny E on 12 Apr 2010 09:21 PM
Joe,

If by balanced you mean…opps over half the data you cited is MIA, and the data itself comes with a caveat saying “Consequently, these rankings lead to simplistic and/or incomplete analyses that often create misleading perceptions adversely affecting cities and counties, along with their residents.”

Then yeah Joe, that sure seems balanced to me.

As for cherry picking, your contrite response addresses niether the missing incomplete data you have quoted repeatedly nor the caveat not to use it for any conclusions.

Heres a basket......pick those cherrys Joe. Maybe you can make us all a smoothie to go with the Kool Aid you are serving.

Lenny:

Keep firing. All the noise and smoke will distract most readers. But some, deep inside, will wonder "Is Lenny EVER going to rebutt Joe and provide any kind of evidence that crime is up?"



Joe 
...One ought to choose likely impossibilities in preference to unconvincing possibilities.- Aristotle
Lenny E
Veteran Member
Veteran Member

Lenny E

Private Messenger: Send Private Message
Posts: 2818


--
13 Apr 2010 03:29 AM
Joe, Hmm, maybe the readers will  wonder if Joe will ever justify his missing data or the caveat that  it leads to simplistic conclusions.
Randy Evans
Advanced Member
Advanced Member

Randy Evans

Private Messenger: Send Private Message
Posts: 622


--
13 Apr 2010 03:51 AM
Thanks, Joe. I am generally optimistic, but more important than that is a strong desire to form beliefs and opinions about how things are based on some sort of actual realistic assessment of how things are. It is very disconcerting when people on "the other side" of debates about topics make utterly unsubstantiated statements (whether it is "crime is up" or "Saddam was responsible for 9/11" or "Obama has raised taxes" or "Health care reform means death panels" or whatever), such that you ultimately conclude that you are debating someone who doesn't really care about the truth at all. In the case at hand, it is a refusal to acknowledge that crime rates have been falling in this country for a long, long time. Theories about why are very debatable, in my opinion, but the absurdity of denying the reality of the decline is pretty extreme. It involves a willful desire for self-delusion, that I think is very troubling for democracy.

Wow, I sound really optimistic, don't I?
Randy <br><br>The Hold Steady is the best band in America!
Kelsey Crisp
Veteran Member
Veteran Member

Kelsey Crisp

Private Messenger: Send Private Message
Posts: 2727


--
13 Apr 2010 04:13 AM
Posted By Kowboy on 12 Apr 2010 09:06 PM

Lenny:

If you've got ANY long-term documentation that crime is up, please post.

Joe



But your information analysis is good too. I'm sure General Custer was glad to find out the indian problems were on the decline....
Kelsey Crisp
Veteran Member
Veteran Member

Kelsey Crisp

Private Messenger: Send Private Message
Posts: 2727


--
13 Apr 2010 04:23 AM
Joe,  While you are relying on data from the most violent stats, my angle was more from what is affecting the majority of people, now, today and tomorrow.
With shoplifting increasing (google it for 2010) home invasions increasing(google it 2010) home burgularies increasing...  it only makes sense people are becoming more desperate.

Wags
Veteran Member
Veteran Member

Wags

Private Messenger: Send Private Message
Posts: 1754


--
13 Apr 2010 04:26 AM

The subject of this thread, is Crime, we haven't seen anything yet.  I am not saying crime has not been going down, at least the reports do say that. What is being discussed is that in the recent past.. currently, we see some uptick in crime.  Of course there are no "Long term " reports of crime rising.. were talking the begining of POSSIBLY a rise in crime. Were seeing the "Green shoots" of crime all across the country.. as even the New York Times reported.. and

http://www.wkyc.com/news/local/news...51&catid=3

Stands to reason that with police being cut,  and people desparate were going to see a rise in crime. Here in Az were seeing a spike along the boarder due to the crime in the narco state of Mexico.  A week ago, a rancher, known for ASSISTING illegals with water etc, was shot down on his own land. They followed the foot prints to Mexico.  This is not an isolated situation.


http://www.azcentral.com/news/artic...aying.html

Perhaps this will continue.. perhaps it's only a minor blip.... Sticking your head in the sand and deny that what is currently happening, isn't, won't make it so.

Wags
Veteran Member
Veteran Member

Wags

Private Messenger: Send Private Message
Posts: 1754


--
13 Apr 2010 04:37 AM
This is what is spilling over the border....http://www.azcentral.com/news/artic...am-up.html

And from the Radical Right Wing  NPR  http://www.npr.org/templates/story/...c=fb&cc=fp


And there are 100's more Joe.. all over the country. 

Is this a trend? We can only PRAY it's not...( I can still say pray can't I? )

I hope it's only a blip........but what if it's not ?? 

I have health, auto, Motorcycle, and house insurance.. not cause I plan on using them, but "In Case".   Same reason I have armed myself, and why I have bought extra food.  Just in case the unspeakable.. happens..   Riots cause a guy lost a court case, what happens IF we have to cut back on government programs?

Face it Joe,  many states are Bankrup, look at Illinois and California.. and they are not alone.. Arizona is not far behind, thanks to our wonderful Janet Napolitano... left us billions in the hole, she even spend the "rainy day fund" in boom times.   But on the bright side.. I do Thank Oboober for taking her away from Arizona ;)
Wags
Veteran Member
Veteran Member

Wags

Private Messenger: Send Private Message
Posts: 1754


--
13 Apr 2010 04:45 AM
Kowboy
Veteran Member
Veteran Member

Kowboy

Private Messenger: Send Private Message
Posts: 2903


--
14 Apr 2010 12:16 AM

Wags:

Here's one for your new thread on Church/State separation:

""The day will come when the mystical generation of Jesus by the Supreme Being as his father, in the womb of a virgin, will be classed with the fable of the generation of Minerva in the brain of Jupiter." - Thomas Jefferson


Joe

...One ought to choose likely impossibilities in preference to unconvincing possibilities.- Aristotle
Tom M
Senior Member
Senior Member

Tom M

Private Messenger: Send Private Message
Posts: 7650


--
14 Apr 2010 12:27 AM
Okay.
My version of that quote comes from "Stuff Jefferson Said" Vol.1867 - Random House, and concludes thusly:

"And believed if you hail from Michigan."


But a Constitution of Government once changed from Freedom, can never be restored. Liberty, once lost, is lost forever.

John Adams, letter to Abigail Adams, July 17, 1775
Wags
Veteran Member
Veteran Member

Wags

Private Messenger: Send Private Message
Posts: 1754


--
14 Apr 2010 12:31 AM
Yep, Jefferson is always quoted, he was about the only non believer .. BUT.. even he agreed we were a religious country. How about the 29 out of the 56 signers of the Declaration of Independence that had attended Seminary college? Or how about after 10 days of trying to draft the constitution with no one agreeing, they broke for three days of prayer. Then they returned and drafted the constitution, saying it was Only by the Grace of the Almighty that we were able to complete their task? Or, after not being allowed by the King of England to print a Bible in America, one of the first things the new Country did was to print a bible, that was "to be used in all schools". Ummm.. need to read real history, not the revised history they teach today.


As I finish reading and doing more research on the founding fathers, reading the "original documents" not an interpretation of them, I'll be happy to start another thread.

Should I assume you have given up your disagreement with this thread? I only posted a few of the many many stories of how crime IS increasing. As I said, will it continue.. I pray not, but no one knows. My gut tells me we have not seen the worse of this depression/recession and hence not the end of crime. But it was a nice "Hi jack of the thread Joe
You are not authorized to post a reply.
Page 2 of 6 << < 12345 > >>


  
 FabNet Forum Rules (Click Plus Sign to Read) Maximize
    

Copyright 2004-2011 by Karben Copy LLC. All rights reserved.